England’s Cancer Vanishing Act Stuns Researchers

Doctor reviewing a file at a desk — Photo: Elnur / Shutterstock

For the first time in recorded history, not a single woman aged 20 to 24 died from cervical cancer in England over a five-year stretch — and researchers say the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine is why.

Story Snapshot

A June 2026 Lancet study found zero cervical cancer deaths in women aged 20-24 in England from 2020 to 2024, compared to 23 expected deaths based on historical rates.
Roughly 200 cervical cancer deaths were prevented in England through HPV vaccination up to the end of 2024.
Vaccination coverage in the 20-24 age group was close to 90%, with most girls vaccinated at age 12 or 13.
Vaccine uptake in the UK has since slipped from around 90% to 75%, driven by misinformation — threatening to undo the progress.

What the Lancet Study Actually Found

Researchers at Queen Mary University of London published the findings in The Lancet on June 17, 2026. They compared actual cervical cancer deaths in vaccinated age groups against what historical rates predicted would happen. Among women aged 20 to 24, the result was stark: zero deaths recorded between 2020 and 2024, against a projected 23.1 deaths. That is a 100% relative risk reduction in that age group — a number that would have seemed impossible to public health experts just two decades ago.

The results did not stop there. Women aged 25 to 29 also showed a 100% reduction in cervical cancer deaths. Women aged 30 to 34 saw a 63% drop. Across all groups combined, the researchers estimated the vaccination program prevented roughly 200 deaths in England through the end of 2024. Lead researcher Professor Peter Sasieni called that figure “just the tip of the iceberg,” since the full wave of vaccinated girls has not yet reached the peak risk ages for cervical cancer.

Why a Shot Given at Age 12 Matters So Much

The HPV vaccine works best when given before any exposure to the virus. England began offering it to girls aged 12 to 13 in 2008. The 20-to-24-year-olds in this study were among the first to receive it at that young age, with nearly 9 in 10 getting vaccinated. That high coverage rate is what researchers believe drove the historic zero-death result. Earlier data had already shown an 87% drop in cervical cancer diagnoses among girls vaccinated before age 16. The mortality data now backs up what the diagnosis numbers were already suggesting.

The Science Is Strong, but Not Without Caveats

The study is observational, meaning researchers tracked real-world outcomes rather than running a controlled experiment. That limits their ability to prove the vaccine alone caused the drop. The authors also note that the 100% figure is unlikely to reflect perfect biological protection. Some of the benefit likely comes from herd protection — unvaccinated women facing lower risk because the virus has fewer hosts to spread through. Researchers also suspect a small number of deaths in the 20-24 group may have been missed in the data, which could slightly inflate the reduction figure.

The statistics now prove the point: HPV vaccination saves lives. In England, cervical cancer deaths among women aged 20–24 have fallen to zero in recent years. Well done to those who introduced HPV vaccination into the national programme. Public health works.#Cancer #vaccines… pic.twitter.com/SocoymwfIp

— Shahram Kordasti (@SKordasti) June 27, 2026

None of those caveats change the core finding. The scale of the drop — across multiple age groups, over multiple years, in a country with high and consistent vaccination rates — is not something that happens by accident. The weight of evidence point in the same direction: vaccinating girls early against HPV saves lives. The observational label is a scientific caution, not a reason to dismiss what the data shows.

The Threat That Could Reverse Everything

Here is where the story turns uncomfortable. Vaccine uptake in the UK has fallen from roughly 90% down to around 75%, driven partly by misinformation and the false claim that the HPV vaccine encourages early sexual activity. Experts say 90% coverage is the minimum needed to hit the global cervical cancer elimination goal by 2040. England’s National Health Service (NHS) has a formal plan targeting that threshold, but falling uptake puts the goal at risk. A generation that built a near-perfect shield is now watching the next generation lower it.

What the US Should Take From England’s Results

In the United States, only 57.3% of adolescents aged 13 to 15 had received the HPV vaccine as recommended in 2023. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends the vaccine for everyone under 26, ideally at age 11 or 12. England’s data shows what high, early, and consistent coverage can actually achieve. The US has the same vaccine, the same science, and the same opportunity — but not yet the same results. The gap between what is possible and what is happening in America is a policy failure, not a medical one.