Investigating what’s behind the rise in ADHD

In Australia, more than 6% of women under 44 are now medicated for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder — more than double the rate experts say should exist anywhere on Earth.

Story Snapshot

Australia’s adult attention deficit hyperactivity disorder prescriptions rose 300% in ten years, with 470,000 people on medication by 2022-2023
Fremantle, Western Australia shows 4.4% of all adults medicated for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder — well above the global benchmark of 2.5-3%
One in three to one in two referrals for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder do not meet diagnostic criteria, according to expert testimony
Australia’s clinical guidelines for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder contain 113 recommendations, but only 12 are backed by evidence

Australia’s Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder Numbers Don’t Add Up

From 2013 to 2020, the number of Australians diagnosed with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder more than doubled. By 2022-2023, roughly 470,000 people were filling prescriptions for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder medications — a 300% jump in a single decade. The University of New South Wales Medicines Intelligence Research Program mapped every prescription filled between 2016 and 2024. What they found wasn’t a smooth national trend. It was a patchwork of extremes that raises serious questions no one has fully answered yet.

Nationally, 2.36% of adults aged 20 to 65 filled at least one attention deficit hyperactivity disorder prescription in the 2025 financial year. That figure sits inside the accepted international range of 2% to 6%. But the national average hides something troubling. Certain postcodes are running far hotter than any global benchmark can explain — and that gap is where the real debate lives.

The Fremantle Hotspot Demands a Real Explanation

Fremantle, Western Australia is the nation’s most medicated suburb for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. Data from the University of New South Wales shows 4.4% of adults there filled a prescription, and among women under 44 the rate climbs to over 6% — updated current figures push that closer to 8%. The accepted global prevalence sits at roughly 2.5% to 3%. Western Australia also has fewer psychiatrists per person than most states, yet leads the country in prescribing. Telehealth providers, not local specialists, are making the bulk of these diagnoses.

Telehealth Companies Moved Fast and Diagnosed Everyone

Two telehealth companies, Doctor Care and Fluence, expanded rapidly alongside the diagnosis surge. The Four Corners documentary found patients paying thousands of dollars for brief consultations, with inaccurate reports and minimal follow-up. Australia’s health practitioner regulator has taken action against more than 55 practitioners for inappropriate attention deficit hyperactivity disorder prescribing or diagnosis. That is not a rounding error. That is a systemic problem, and it points directly at the speed and volume of telehealth-driven diagnoses as a core driver of inflated numbers.

The Diagnostic Tool Is a Questionnaire, Not a Blood Test

There is no biological test for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. No brain scan, no genetic marker, no lab result confirms it. Diagnosis rests entirely on clinician judgment and self-reported questionnaires. Australia’s own clinical guidelines contain 113 recommendations for diagnosing and treating the condition, but only 12 of those recommendations are backed by actual evidence — and most of that evidence is rated low-certainty. The remaining 101 recommendations are consensus-based, meaning a group of experts agreed on them. That is a shaky foundation for a 300% prescription surge.

One in Three Referrals Fails the Diagnostic Test

Psychologist Dr. David Becker told the Four Corners documentary that one-third to one-half of people referred for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder assessment do not meet diagnostic criteria. That number is staggering. If even the lower estimate holds across the country, tens of thousands of Australians are being diagnosed — and medicated — for a condition they do not have. The medications involved are stimulants. Emergency departments are already reporting more presentations linked to stimulant side effects, including psychosis, though no national statistics yet confirm the exact scale.

Big Pharma’s Fingerprints Are on the Expert Advice

Pharmaceutical company Takeda, maker of the attention deficit hyperactivity disorder drug Vyvanse, saw its government subsidy bill rise from $32 million in 2020 to $168 million in 2023. The company paid Professor David Coghill $11,000. Coghill led the Vyvanse clinical trials and co-authored prescribing guides used across Australia. That is a conflict of interest that belongs in every conversation about whether the diagnosis surge reflects real need or manufactured demand. It does not prove wrongdoing, but it absolutely demands scrutiny — and common sense says follow the money.

Both Sides Are Partly Right, Which Makes This Harder to Fix

The honest answer is that both overdiagnosis and historic underdiagnosis are real. Professor Mark Bellgrove at Monash University argues Australia is still catching up from years of ignoring adult attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, especially in women. That case has merit. But catching up does not explain why one suburb in Perth is medicating women at three times the global rate. The truth is likely a collision of genuine need, loosened diagnostic standards, profit-driven telehealth, and social media amplification — with TikTok alone racking up over 36 billion views of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder content. Sorting real from manufactured is the work Australia has not yet done.